Defining “World-Class” Transit

A world-class transit system gets people where they need to go, and is an accessible, frequent, reliable, and convenient alternative to automotive travel. Transportation systems with world-class transit options provide their users access to a comparable or better number of jobs, services, and amenities than any other mode of travel.

To determine how the United States can achieve world-class transit, we must first define what world-class transit is and do so in a way that allows us to compare it to where the U.S. is today. The funding required to provide quality transit service varies significantly across countries, so directly comparing how much money is spent on transit in one place versus another would make for a very problematic comparison.

Instead, we decided to compare the size of transit fleets against the population of the metropolitan area they serve. While imperfect, this allows us to use more easily accessible data, which can be difficult to come by, considering the vastly different reporting requirements and levels of transparency among transit agencies abroad.

To set a benchmark for world-class service, we needed a diverse set of cities with exemplary, high-quality transit service. Using data collected by the International Association of Public Transport (UITP) via their CityTransitData website, we had access to a robust list of global cities known for delivering high-quality transit, with corresponding data on their fleet of public transportation vehicles. The cities in this dataset were selected to represent world-class transit for the relative ease of comparative analysis of data found in U.S. transit statistics, as well as the geographic and political diversity of the cities. Unfortunately, more comparable sources on fleet vehicle-level data on transit service outside the U.S. are not consistently or easily available, particularly for mid- and small-sized cities outside of the United States. As a result, this cohort was selected primarily based on the availability of data comparable to the urbanized-area-level data collected by the Federal Transit Administration.

The level of transit service provided, defined as the number of vehicles in a metropolitan area’s transit fleet for every 100k residents, is relatively consistent across this global cohort of cities. As population increases, so does the number of transit vehicles, allowing even the largest cities in this list to provide impressive transit, at least compared to standards in the United States. Across the 17 global cities in our selected cohort, there are, on average, over 130 transit vehicles in these cities’ fleets for every 100k residents. Assuming that about 20 percent is left in reserve on average during peak operations, that leaves an impressive 106 vehicles to operate in peak service for every 100k residents.

Measuring the # of transit vehicles per 100k residents in global cities

Defining an Urbanized Area

Comparing the U.S. to world-class transit

The United States’ transit networks today have a long way to go to approach parity with international competitors and peers.

To approximate the frequency and coverage of transit in a region and estimate how much additional investment is needed to achieve world-class transit, we sought to place American transit fleets in the same terms as this global benchmark. For each of the assessed American urbanized areas (UZA), we summed up the total number of fixed route (vanpool and paratransit were not evaluated in this analysis) transit vehicles operating in maximum service (VOMs) as reported in the National Transit Database and compared the number of vehicles operating against the population of each urbanized area. These urban areas are home to more than 230 million Americans, or 65 percent of the United States’ population.

Quantifying the disparity between world-class transit and existing transit service in the U.S.

Outside New York City’s urbanized area, transit across the U.S. falls far below the standards set in the rest of the world. But what would it take to close the gap?

The cities delivering world-class transit each provide well over 100 transit vehicles for every 100k residents. To compare America’s cities and urban areas, we determined the number of transit vehicles per 100k persons in each urbanized area. To do so, we took stock of the total number of transit vehicles operating in maximum service by mode, as reported in the 2023 National Transit Database data. Evaluated on these terms, there’s a stark difference between what is delivered in the United States and what is available on a normal day elsewhere. In 2023, there were just 27 fixed route transit vehicles operating in maximum service for every 100,000 residents across all UZAs. 

If the U.S. is ever to achieve transit service that approaches the convenience, accessibility, and economic efficiencies delivered in transportation systems abroad, we would need to dramatically expand investment in the transit fleets operating in these urban areas and fundamentally reimagine the role of transit in American cities. But how much would we need to build, and how much would it cost? 

What could world-class transit look like in the United States?

Transit service works best in dense, mixed-use areas where housing is built close to jobs, retail, restaurants, schools, groceries, banks, and other important services. The urban form of the United States that arose out of the postwar period, however, is typified by sprawling, car-oriented development driven by restrictive zoning that separates and spreads out jobs, amenities, services, and housing in ways that are difficult to connect using transit. If prioritized, transit in the United States can improve significantly over the next 20 years. But because a generation of development has been hostile to transit, building truly world-class transit will take significantly longer. This analysis should therefore be looked at as a starting point. 

Since no community is the same as another, the level of service required to be “world-class transit” might vary from one place to another, depending on everything from density, land use patterns, geography, and demographics. The cohort of cities we evaluated makes a good benchmark for cities like Los Angeles, Miami, New York, or Chicago, but for smaller cities, the level of transit service could be reasonably scaled down. To account for one part of that equation, we set targets for world-class transit service that varied based on the city/urban area’s density. 

As urban areas get denser, there should be more transit operating at maximum service to move a greater number of people around. A smaller, less dense city like Montgomery, Alabama, should have great transit, but it probably does not need to deliver the same frequency as New York City to be great. 

For each UZA, we created an estimated level of service that corresponded with the density of the area, with service levels generally increasing according to the rules in this table:

*excludes growth from UZAs with no reported fixed route transit vehicles operating at maximum service. For some communities, particularly college towns, more transit vehicles were operating at peak than what would be expected given their current levels of density. In those instances, we added an extra 10 transit vehicles in service per 100k residents over 2023 levels to their 2045, world-class transit targets to ensure this scenario represented a consistent step toward improving transit service everywhere in the country.
Additional information about our assumptions for the cost to achieve World-Class American Transit can be found in our Appendix and Methods Summary.