Investing in transit capital: World-Class American Transit

Our capital expansion scenario calls for increasing the number of transit vehicles in service by more than 116,000 to provide service that approaches globally competitive cities, requiring a $181 billion investment. World-class service also isn’t stuck in traffic—we will need to build over 7,500 miles of new right-of-way for this expanded transit service to operate, ideally within its own dedicated spaces, requiring a $860 billion investment in infrastructure.

Drilled down, our analysis calls for:

• $129 billion for the procurement of a fleet of over 100,000 new buses to more than triple the number of buses on the road today.
• $29 billion for over 8,100 light rail vehicles and heavy rail metro cars, representing a 76 percent increase in urban rail vehicles.
• $22 billion for over 4,300 new commuter railcars, nearly doubling existing numbers.
• The construction or conversion of over 7,500 miles of new dedicated transit routes, nearly doubling the length of today’s existing networks.
• $155 billion for over 5,150 miles for new dedicated bus rapid transit and dedicated bus lanes, more than two and a half times the existing network.
• $535 billion for nearly 1,500 miles of new urban rail, like light rail and heavy rail tracks, viaducts, and tunnels, opening up opportunities for new development at hundreds of stations.
• $169 billion for nearly 850 miles of new commuter and regional rail to connect cities and towns with economic opportunities within regions.

How much would it cost to build up a world-class transit fleet and service?

According to data from the National Transit Database, U.S. transit agencies reported spending $7.5 billion on transit service expansion in 2023. If investment in transit follows previous trends over the next 20 years, the U.S. will spend approximately $219 billion on transit capital expansion projects between 2026 and 2045 at baseline spending levels. To get transit to world-class levels across all urban areas, the U.S. would need to massively expand on that investment.

Our scenario calls for increasing investment in transit capital expansion by $1 trillion above the anticipated baseline investment of $218 billion between 2026 and 2045 to build out America’s transportation systems and achieve world-class transit. Of that total, $181 billion would go to purchasing over 115,000 new, American-made transit vehicles, and nearly $860 billion would go to building out over 7,500 miles of new dedicated bus rapid transit lines, rails, and accompanying stations and facilities, effectively tripling the transit fleet and doubling the coverage of existing dedicated transit lines.

Capital expansion costs: Vehicles

World-class transit service is frequent, reliable, and provides great access to jobs and other destinations. Transit agencies of all sizes would need to dramatically increase capital expenditures to build a fleet large enough to provide frequent service that reaches all the destinations people need to go.

Historically, existing transit capital expenditures in the U.S. have been barely enough to cover the replacement of older vehicles and system maintenance, let alone expand fleets to provide attractive, frequent transit service. There are now fewer transit vehicles available for service in 2023 than there were in 2019. As a result, the U.S. lags far behind global peers. Only 18 percent of Americans live within walking distance of frequent transit, while peer countries like Canada and France have double and triple that, at 47 percent and 75 percent respectively. Ridership follows frequency and access to useful destinations. Investments in frequency should be intentional and planned in ways that meet users’ contemporary needs.

More Americans deserve good transit. In total, we call for $181 billion in new capital investment to procure more than 116,000 new transit vehicles to dramatically increase frequency across existing routes and provide new options to create new ones.

Assumptions: Vehicles

This illustrative analysis to estimate the cost for the United States to achieve world-class transit is based on the idea that U.S. transportation networks do not deliver enough service with existing fleets, and we use fleet sizes as a proxy for the increased coverage and frequency needed to bring the United States up to global par with the world-class transit benchmark cities. To simplify this analysis, we assume that the transit fleet’s mix of modes remains unchanged from 2023 to 2045. If half of an agency’s fleet today is made up of buses, we scale up that same ratio to reach the area’s target level of transit service, or vehicles operated in maximum service (VOMs). In reality, the vehicles used to provide world-class service should differ from place to place depending on geography, density, land use, and future development patterns. This means our estimate for the number of buses in service would be very high, since most urban areas only run buses, or they constitute the backbone of service today.

Cost estimates for individual buses, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail vehicles are derived from research from the Transit Costs Project and the Brookings Institution.

Our estimated cost to procure a transit bus is set at $1 million, higher than the cost for the average diesel bus (identified in recent research as costing agencies approximately $500,000), but lower than battery electric buses. This is to account for the variations in costs that derive from differences in lengths and propulsion types. Additionally, as a mode with a relatively shorter lifespan, we assumed a portion of newly acquired buses would need to be replaced before the end of the scenario, increasing costs by 1.25 times base levels to account for the replacement of buses procured early in this scenario.

Capital expansion costs: Right-of-way (ROW)

Delays from congestion devalue investments made in transportation infrastructure. While increasing frequency along existing routes would be transformative, simply running these additional vehicles on existing routes on mixed-traffic streets alone will eventually face the same traffic that car commuters deal with. As congestion has grown to be more persistent throughout the day, the benefits of transit as an alternative to congested trips on the highway become more important and apparent.

However, compared to transit networks found across the world, the United States’ rapid transit systems tend to be commuter-oriented, designed to take suburban residents to downtown employment centers, even though this no longer serves many people’s needs today. Many people need to make connections from suburb to suburb to go from their home to their job, or their job to their doctor, or from school to their home. This issue, combined with the country’s already sprawling land use, means transit in the United States often struggles to provide good access to jobs and services.

Meanwhile, many transit systems across the world serve their residents by distributing coverage and service around more than just their downtowns and by clustering new development and housing around transit, meeting more people’s daily needs.

Transit maps of Singapore and Berlin, Germany
Transit options are abundant and can even be found in less-dense areas, connecting people to a network with high-connectivity.

Transit maps of Los Angeles, California and Dallas, Texas
Note the lack of broad geographic coverage and of orbital lines connecting less-dense areas.

Expanding dedicated transit right-of-way and moving toward a model emphasizing regional connectivity would help transit systems connect people to more jobs, housing, and amenities. Increasing transit right-of-way funding also unlocks opportunities to maximize the utility of existing infrastructure, enabling through-running and eliminating local capacity bottlenecks. There would be massive opportunities for development at the hundreds of new stations that would be built in this scenario. New housing built alongside transit would have the benefits of automatic access to the rest of the region’s growing transit network. With access to jobs potentially on the decline across all transportation modes, largely due to rebounded traffic congestion, coordinating transit development with compact, mixed-use development could help solve the complex problems of job access and housing affordability.

In total, we call for $860 billion in new capital investment to acquire and build new dedicated transit right-of-way, ensuring that new transit service can be delivered efficiently and without having to compete with traffic on congested roads.

Assumptions: Right-of-way (ROW)

When transit does not have to compete for space on the road with other vehicles, service, frequency, and reliability can dramatically increase. For any given urbanized area, we assumed that, for a given number of new vehicles in service, investment in new dedicated transit right-of-way would be warranted to maximize the service and utility of these new vehicles. We did not assess the existing expansion plans of individual urban areas and invite comparison between our projections, based on the assumptions in this report, and the planned expansions.

Similarly, the per-mile costs of new dedicated right-of-way for a given mode are estimated by extrapolating from an evaluation of costs of real-world projects.Essentially, if the number of new vehicles to be acquired is comparable to the number required to operate a full transit line, we assume the region constructs a new line.

To estimate the cost of each new vehicle and mile of track or bus rapid transit lane, we draw from a growing body of research examining transit costs. Our assumptions for the cost of light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail per-vehicle and per-mile costs are derived from data found in Eno Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration Capital Cost Database and data from the Transit Cost Project’s Rolling Stock Cost database.

How many vehicles for a new mile of Fixed Guideway ROW?

*Two exceptions: As heavy and commuter rail are both highly developed in New York City and Chicago, we reduced investment targets for heavy rail in their respective urban areas.

Credit: Marco Chitti

Bus lanes and BRT – $155 billion

In 2023, transit agencies reported 1,975 miles of dedicated right-of-way for bus routes in the United States. Under the assumptions of our world-class transit investment scenario, bus right-of-way would expand by 5,174 miles, bringing the total network length to 7,148 miles. Building dedicated bus lanes and bus rapid transit (BRT) would be one of the most cost-effective ways to attain world-class transit, as BRT can utilize existing assets, like highways and streets, and by configuring them for transit, vastly improve people’s mobility by providing alternatives to congested car traffic without building new rail transit systems.

Light rail – $269 billion

In 2023, transit agencies reported 828 miles of dedicated right-of-way for light rail transit in the United States. Under the assumptions of our world-class transit investment scenario, the light rail network length would expand by 895 miles to a total length of 1,723 miles. Thanks in part to their relative flexibility and lower costs to build, light rail systems have been the rapid transit mode of choice in recent decades for U.S. cities building out transit. Light rail can operate at high speeds on dedicated right-of-way, and also has the flexibility to navigate tracks on streets. However, when operating at the street level, light rail trains’ speed and therefore usefulness can suffer when in conflict with car traffic, requiring smart decisions to reserve separated lanes and prioritize transit at intersections using traffic signals.

Heavy rail – $267 billion

In 2023, transit agencies reported 860 miles of dedicated right-of-way for heavy rail transit in the United States. Under the assumptions of our world-class transit investment scenario, heavy rail networks would expand by 512 miles to a total length of 1,453 miles. While some of the most expensive and complex types of transit to build, heavy rail transit systems are extremely adept at moving thousands of people at high speed and distance in highly congested urban areas. Heavy rail transit systems are extremely effective at catalyzing transit-oriented development around stations, and are the backbone of regional economies, being a massive draw for business and private investment.

Commuter and regional rail – $169 billion

In 2023, transit agencies reported 4,087 miles of dedicated right-of-way for commuter rail transit in the United States. Under the assumptions of our world-class transit investment scenario, the commuter rail network would expand by 845 route miles to a total length of 4,932 miles. Building out commuter rail, especially oriented more toward a regional rail model that has been embraced by other countries with successful multimodal transportation networks, would significantly bolster transit’s utility in more suburban communities. Many regions in the United States, such as Chicago, Utah, Boston, and other locations, are actively shifting commuter rail to a regional model, and many are leveraging existing right-of-way for transit-oriented development, like in Maryland. Expanding commuter rail capital investment would allow for new TOD opportunities or needed changes to allow for track improvements needed for either frequency or flexibility to make regional rail work locally.

Right-of-way (ROW) construction cost assumptions: